Large power transformers have never been quick to buy. They are custom-built to a single utility's specifications, they weigh as much as a locomotive, and the global order book has been tight since 2021.
What is new is that three of the six manufacturers serving the North American market have stopped publishing delivery estimates altogether.
Two now quote only "on allocation." The third told a utility purchasing group in July that it would resume quoting dates "when the order profile stabilizes."
Nobody wants to say why
Utilities are not required to disclose replacement purchases, and most do not. Of eleven utilities contacted for this story, nine declined to say whether recent orders were replacements or capacity additions.
The two that answered said replacements. Neither would say what had happened to the units being replaced.
One purchasing manager at a mid-sized western cooperative, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss procurement, put it more directly.
"We ordered four. We have three sites. I'll let you do that math, and then I'd appreciate it if you'd forget I said it."
A purchasing manager at a western electric cooperative
Industry analysts have generally attributed the surge to data center demand, which is real and well documented. But data center growth is concentrated in Virginia, Texas, and Arizona, and the ordering surge is not. It is concentrated in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.
Those four states account for under three percent of new data center construction. They account for just over forty percent of the new transformer orders.